每日SP500等走势猜测 (by 诸葛神算 at daqian)

put here as reference. original link:
http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance&MsgID=588645

每日SP500等走势猜测(Guesstimates everyday)

S&P 500: Because SP 500 breakout the 1407.89 level and the last 5 sessions, fund managers are trying to hold above that level, I hereby change my target to 1434.11 ( on Jan. 5 of 2007) and if above that, 1455 (on Feb 12th of 2007), when will be the last target as my previous said. I do believe it topped on 11/27/2006 and this is just an extension price rally. The 1434 or 1455 level should be depended on if NASDAQ and Dow breakout the 2468.42 and 12365 respectively and thereafter, I will change the bull market time cycle ended on 2/12/2007, when should be the last date for the Bull Run. And between now and 2/12/2007, we should have a correction on 1/5/2007 and SP should pull back around to 1415 level.

I still think SP will have a small rebound from Dec. 13 to Dec. 29 of this year to form the last top to 1434.11. I still keep target for next bear market with 1300-1295 or 1273-1276, starting on Feb 12th of 2007, ending on 15th of May, 2007. At the next year end, we should see SP at 1487.

Next few days, it should be 1434 soon.

Nasdaq: I keep my target for this round Nasdaq bull market at 2468.42 with top on 11/27/06. However, if it breaks out 2468 level because of its company SP’s strong movement, it will move to 2520.64 on 2/12/07. My target for NASDAQ at next round bear market is 2139 till 5/15/07.

(Here is a number for my prediction use: 2012.78=3000-987, you can figure it out if you try your best).

Today, it might reach 2450 or so and it should breakout 2468 this week. If not, we might start a bear market early and the date 11/27/06 will be formally marked as bear market by me.

Dow: my target for this round of bull market is 12360 (reduced from 12409 to 12360) with top on 11/29/06. However, if SP keeps its current strength, I would predict Dow will be around in 12737 with spike possible 12816 till 2/12/07. After it reaches 12603 level, it should have a small pull back around to 12390 but finally it will reach 12737 level or 12816. (again, 12360=11750+610).

The down leg for next bear market is 11155 which should start on 2/12/07 to the end on 5/15/07.

It should get a sharp rally from Dow today with triple digital gain.

Euro-US $: I keep bullish for euro and every pull back is a chance to add more. Since Euro breaks 1.3000, I think it will go to 1.3480 on 1/14/07. My finally target is 1.5000 on 12/13/07. It should breakout 1.3364 this week.

US $-Yen: I keep US$ bearish. Yen pulled back to 116.90, and it should start toward 113.50 on 1/4/07 and I reduce my final target from 113 to 109 which should be on 2/14/07 and my longer term target 100 should be on 12/13/07.

December Crude oil CL: my target for this round of oil bear market is 50.47 first until May 30 of 2007 (changed date here). My final target for it is 39.97 on 4/9/08.

It might rebound to 65.80 on next 2 weeks then I think it will continue downward to 58.

December Natural gas NG: my target for the seasonal bull market is 9.6 (removed 10.6) on Jan 12, 2007.

December Gold GC: I changed my view to a little bit bullish market for gold in mid term. My target for this round small bull market will be between 550 and 730. With my MFB theory, it will first trade around 700 till Mar. 29, 2007, then down 550 until Sep. 5, 2007, then rebound to 650 at the end of 2007 and I would see it would be 450 in 2008.

I would expect it will down to 583 in next few weeks and then resume it upward to 700.

December Silver SI: I changed my target for silver to 17.25 from 15.02.It will trade to all time high around 15 on 1/24/07 (changed date) and 17.25 on Mar. 29, 2007 and then down to 11.50 on Sep. 5, 2007.

Next few days after it overcomes the 14.4, it should move to the direction all time high.

December 10 year notes ZN: I start to believe notes should not move faster than I expected and I drop my bullish view to neutral. Although it was near my predicted target around 109-26 on Dec. 6, 2006, I would not expect it will up fast. It should stay around 106 to 109 for at least 2 months because I expect the US rate cut will be postponed longer time (might after June or very later of next year).

It should top in short term at 109-20 on Dec. 6, 2006, and after one more test the high, it should start to move lower to 107 on 1/12/07 and 106 on 2/20/07.

GOOG: I still keep my old words here for goog: “it will breakout 500 to 510 and my target is 479, then down to 369, finally 280 bottom”

However, I would add time frame here. The 510 is tested on 11/22/06 ( at price 113) which I believe historic top. Then it starts downward. Now it is 481 and it should breakout 479 then move to 440 on 12/19/06 or 1/5/07. After retest 465, it should move to 404 on 1/17/07, then 369 on 2/12/07. After a small consolidation, it should move to 331 on 4/4/07 and down to 280 on 5/1/07 then start a huge renounce.

BIDU: here I am seriously predicting it. From my MFB theory, the target should be around 139 (also possible 148). Since 128.68 is also big line for MBT, I also think it may top here if it can’t breakout in next few days.

The price will change big on 12/19/06 (this date exactly as goog time frame) in either way or I bet it will down there. If (here is only if) it trade with goog, it should down same time frame as goog. But I would see it will down much slower than GOOG because its time frame is much longer then goog.

It will stay above 117 at least for some weeks then start to show weak sign.

All prediction is based on my personal experience. Charts are available on my blog.

I try to update it every week (everyday seems impossible).