2/24 market watch

Market did a beatiful reversal today. It will be significant. From 6 month Naz chart, the higher low formed. Previous low was 2008. So next few days will be critical. Currently Naz sit on 2050 which is a support/resistent line. To confirm up trend, 2100 need to be broken. To confirm down trend, break down 2000 is a must. So let's keep a close eye.

DOW's chart is much better. The up trend is intact. S&P is also in uptrend and not far away from 52 week high.

So, strong DOWN and S&P favor Naz up. If so, Naz will 补涨. If not, DOW and S&P need 补跌.

Individual stocks:

1. AAPL strong today, especially in the first half day. It's relative weak in the afternoon. My thought is that AAPL already up for several days in down market. People expect less return on it compared with oversold other stocks. Also, there are 2 big block trade intraday. Looks like some institution unloaded AAPL. Since I still have AAPL options, I need to be causious.

2. Most stocks just perform in sync with Naz.

3. SINA stay in very narrow range today. I guess something is going on. Also, it becomes very good acquiration target. So I bought small amount of long term (September) 30 calls for speculation.

4. 检讨: missed chance again. low CPI & PPI is a boost to real estate. I should have in home builder stocks. TOL, PHM etc all big up.

5. NVDA made a good return after yestoday's drop. So I think the impact of the artical I mentioned yestoday is dinimishing. I expect it return to up trend and break previous high.

6. GOOG is tricky now. It get downgraded today. So yesterday up before close looks more like a pump. But still not know what happening. I guess: some MM knows the downgrade just before the end of yesterday, they pump it hard to neutralize the impact of today's downgrade. The purpose is still unclear, whether they want to get out or not. From the cost of the pumping (volumn during 10 minutes pumping last afternoon), they are not ready to get out. I expect they pump more. Today's chart is from the lowest point to highest point. 180 is previous support which wasn't broken today. I expect more upside ahead.

2/23 market watch

NQ still very weak. Even good CPI cannot make it up. My thought is that:
1. Big down already make the chart very ugly, and market sentiment very bearish.
2. Oil price back to high, so even current CPI low, future CPI will be bad.

Individual stocks:
1. GOOG acts like a dead dog for the whole day. But just 10 minutes before close it started to run with big volumn. It up around $3 in last 10 minutes, and continue up around $1 AH. Need close watch. Either some MM control it for future dumping or some fund is getting in. Not sure what's happening. It's more possible the latter case. If so, GOOG will go up from now. and it forms higher low and higher high. In this case, it will break previous high.
2. NVDA is very weak today. I guess it's related to one paid article "Hindsight on Nvidia Provides a Lesson".
3. Storage stocks get hammered today. NTAP down 1.17, QLGC down 2.06. QLGC, NVDA both present in Goldman Sucks Tech Investment Symposium today. They must have presented not so good forcast. NTAP will present tomorrow.
4. AAPL very strong after 3 losing days. It need break previous high of 90, or it forms double head.

stock to watch: NVDA

NVDA today shows strength, and have unusual volumn.

IMO, it might be accumulated right now. I had planned to in it. But I didn't do it at its day low around 27.8

keep an eye on it.

2/7, 2/8 market & trading

FFIV rebound hard, but I didn't buy. :((

Need see if it can stand above 50.

Had long meeting yesterday at 11:00am so didn't post.
report some actions yesterday. Bot AAPL FEB 80 calls. Sold most ATVI calls before ER.

Covered short side of my ATVI spread today.

Edit:
got more ATVI calls. It's break out now.

Edit:
FFIV up more than $1 since my post. 郁闷

2/4 market

GOOG doing down test the gap the second time. It's tricky to predict its future direction. So leave it here.

EBAY continue down. There's some support here. So rebound expected.

OSTK, FFIV reverse today.

This is another example that correct analysis cannot earn money. :((

Edit:
EBAY 又miss掉了. 这些天真衰.

Edit:
EBAY resumes down trend.
OSTK break out.
AAPL weak. AAPL will retreat to 76 in short time.

2/3 market

AMZN gap down.

GOOG up. It really wants to go up. Sold calls. 5 in 6.6 out. stock up 4, call up 1.6. too little.

OSTK looks like trend reversal here. Missed it. Sigh.

FFIV also looks like trend reversal here.

Edit:
GOOG super strong. It keeps going up after filled the gap. Too strong.
Usually stocks should retest at gap area several times.

Edit:
ASKJ, SNDA, SHOP report earning today.
ATVI shows strength now, it might close green today.

Edit:
没有put EBAY, 真是罪过. 怎么老没有信心呢?

Edit:
NTES很可能会借SNDA的东风扭转趋势. 值得关注.

2/2 trading

closed all YHOO options. It's very weak even with GOOG's news.

closed AAPL options. It faces resistence at 80. seems cannot overcome it for the first time.

sold NVDA options. It's consolidating. Momentum gone for now. wait for later chance.

bought small amount of GOOG Jan 200 puts(GOOG price 211.8 at this time). GOOG should retreat to 200 area first. This gap has to be filled.

Edit:
Sold GOOG puts. 2.8 in 3.8 out. quick money. :))

Edit:
Sold too early. :(( GOOG drop another $3 after I sold puts.

Edit:
倒打一耙. GAP almost filled. so bought some GOOG calls.

2/1 market comments

除非NAZ一举突破2080, NAZ还是处于摇摇欲坠中.

EBAY break down 80. short term target 70.

GOOG gives me bad feeling. My prediction is it will break down after ER. The expectation is too high.

FFIV is going towards 44-46 to fill the gap. May reach there in a week. Plan to buy after it filled the gap.

Edit:

GOOG up $10 after hour. however, 我还是觉得象强鲁之末.
BTW, OSTK may be a buy here.

NVDA reports good earning.

THQI reports good earning.
Buy ATVI here. If you don't want to bet, ATVI reports earning on 2/7. It will go up before 2/7. Just buy tomorrow morning and sell before ER to avoid risk.

General speaking, most ER are good for this quarter. So NAZ expects to hold.
Expect FED meeting give no surprise and this would be a boost to the market.

现在牛军就两杆大旗: AAPL, GOOG