5/20 Trading 总结及经验

今天故事range小, 大多个股range也小,只好刮皮.

今天主要刮了QQQQ和GOOG的皮.
先bot QQQQ May 37 call at 0.5, sold at 0.55
bot QQQQ May 38 put at 0.5, cut at 0.45
bot QQQQ May 37 call at 0.55 again, sold at 0.65

然后开始刮GOOG的皮:
bot GOOG May 240 call at 1.2 sold at 1.3
bot GOOG May 250 put at 8.9 sold at 9.2

carry over position:
GOOG June 240 call at 8.2

Prediction: GOOG next monday will gap up $3

教训:
1. 不该focus在QQQQ上. OE day most time small range, hard to scalp. 费死力气了在QQQQ上刮的皮也没多少.
2. 很迟才体会到GOOG的强势. 其实在GOOG 12:30pm 突破range
的时候就该舍弃QQQQ trading.

另外, IB web trader sucks, slow. so I cannot trade future. It's better to trade NQ future instead of QQQQ option.

5/16 Trading

Plan for 5/17:
if PPI low and open high, put index on high if PPI high and open low, call index on low other case watch. Stocks to watch: GOOG (put mode), home builders, PHM TOL

Traded GOOG MAY 130 calls again today.

look at intra-day chart, it shows break out sign when stock approaching 229.5. In calls at 2.3.

The green spot is when I bot calls. This is the most reliable break out pattern.



and half hour before close when stock rallied to 231.3, it shows sign of exausting. So out at 3.1. At this time, stock price cross the 5-min MA again, but going downward.

The stock dropped to 231 at close. and option price drop fast as it expires this Friday.

5/13 Trading

Sold GOOG options carried over from yestoday at 3. Missed the top 3.4. Anyway, profit is good.

Missed chances to trade QQQQ MAY 35 calls and MAY 37 PUTS. The trend is very clear. Missed some very big profit here.

Next week, I expect market up.

the only reason market is down is that people uncertain about the economy. I don't think the economy is weak yet. Just like beginning of last year people also worried about economy "soft patch". And if economy shows strong sign again, oil and materials will get strong. So I expect the oil to up with market which is a different scienario in the first half of 2005.

EUR break down again. It dropped to 1.26 level. This is a major trend reverse. I expect it down to 1.23 level to get meaningful rebounce.

5/12 Trading & Lessons

Another option day trading day with lessons.

Sold GOOG MAY 130 calls at 4.4 at loss. This is ok as cut loss fast is way to survive.
Got back at 3.8 and didn't sell at 4.4 when it's rebounding. Lesson 1!!!! Too greedy!!!! Ignoring turn around signal and let greedy in control.
Sold at 3.5 at loss and didn't buy puts as planned yestoday. Lesson 2!!!! Not executing plan!!! This is the time to get in puts according to intra-day chart even put is not at the best price of the day.
Bought back at 2.65 as GOOG approaching support area at 228.3, and didn't sell at 3. Lesson 3!!!! Neglecting reverse signal and let emotion in control!
Didn't buy put at 3 even order is ready. The put worth 4 now. Lesson 4!!!! Changed plan at will. and don't have follow on plan.
The last position now is break-even, but very possible to turn to loss tomorrow. Lesson 5!!!! Carry option position overnight to Friday! General rule should be closing option positions before Friday.
Forgot to put LNG. It's my put candidate of last night's research. Lesson 6!!!! Write down all research result. Or it get forgotten.

Lesson 7!!!! From GOOG intra-day chart, the up momentum is fading away, should switch to do PUT options instead of CALL options. The trading plan is not well planned.

Today I broke several rules and get punished. The penalty is not big yet. But, a 10k profit day turns to a 2k loss day. And there are several lessons learned. To not make same mistakes again is crucial to future success.

General Market:

EUR gap down for the second consective day. This is still a myth to me. From the trend of EUR this year, looks to me the depreciating US$ vs EUR has reversed. Expect more down of EUR ahead. I expect EUR down to 1.23 area in 3 month.

Oil big down for the second day, and comodities like metal, coal all down, implying a slowing economy, and coincedence with today's WMT warning.

But according to my personal experience, the job market now is very good and better than last year. So what does this mean? Strong job market will spur spending and thus inflation ==> FED raise rate? and coming with slowing economy at the same time? I'm lost here. and something is wrong.

5/11 Trading

GOOG in break out mode.

Day traded GOOG MAY 230 calls today. Bought at 2.8 yestoday and sold at 3.8 today,
Bought back at 3.3, and sold at 4.8
and bought back at 4.7 again,

Plan to sell tomorrow before conference meeting. Expect the price > 5.5. and buy MAY 130 put after sell calls.