some thought about beginning of 2007

what I think now is that: funds short futures to protect their stock long positions. they dont close positions to avoid tax. next year, they will first sell long positions, and then cover future later. so first half of Jan I think will be bloody.

later half of Jan maybe ok due to short covering of futures.

below by Greenfield at daqian:

觉得被说服了,才决定要实践一下试试. 书里的意思就是说DAY TRADING就象赌场一样.是个概绿和数学的游戏.赌场有大概4%到5%的edge,所以关键就是sample size.只要SAMPLE SIZE够大,算上那些输赢很大的outliners, 4%到5%的赢率是肯定的事情. 做DAY TRADING就象开赌场的人. 每个决定都以概率和risk/reward比例为根据,加上严格控制风险,加大交易量,你就能赢.