但愿你飞^o^-nasdaq股市笔记

但愿你飞^o^-nasdaq股市笔记

8/31 Lesson - one importan pattern about chasing stocks

Look at 3 stocks: AAPL MCRS JOYG
All of them fall into following pattern:

1. Near year low. Current year, may not 52 week low. But anyway not far from 52 week low.
2. Report ER.
3. Was strong stock before.
4. Gap up at open (or AH).
5. Broard market not very bad.

The action should taken is: chase at open next morning.

As example, JOYG is close to 2006 low, when broard market bounce quite some it's not. Reported good ER in AH yestoday, gap up at open today at 39. It's a chase. It closed at 43.54 and I expect it going higher in the following days. The Sep 40 call was 1.2 at open, high is 4.5. 400% return in one day.

ER2 chart for 8/31/2006:

08/30 --3 months data

From June to end of Aug
YM: 11300 -> 10800 -> 11300 -> 10800 -> 11400
ES : 1300 -> 1240 -> 1287 -> 1240 -> 1307
NQ : 1600 -> 1530 -> 1600 -> 1450 -> 1587
Er2 : 740 -> 680 -> 735 -> 675 -> 723

08/30

1. Overall feeling is still too many shorts, Put/Call =1.03

2. most time ER2's range is from 719.5 to 723.5. However both ES and YM lost steam today and unable to create new highs. Part of the reason could be energy is lower. Technology is gainging momentum. However JDSU warned may cool it a bit.

3. Need pay more attention to gap up/down.

Leading Sectors: Disk Drives +2.14% Semis +1.80% Networking +1.36%
Lagging Sectors: Energy -1.62% Oil Service -2.12% Oil Tankers -2.17%

ER2 chart today:

08/29 Lessons

1. SAFM gap up: good ER, high short ratio(31%), open 28, up to 30.3

2. Always watch chart : at 704.5 down trend broken, it's a long there.

3. Pay attention to spike: spike means MM action. Usually pattern is spike up--->consolidation--->another spike. Best time is to in at consolidation area.

4. Don't enlarge a pos after a lose trade

5. Market usually to follows the trend from 12PM to 1PM.

6. # get some info that lot ppl intend to short(4:1) means retailer are over bearish, MM can use it to squzzz.

7. 716.x is last time high, ER2 was pushed to that level to force shorts to cover.

闲聊money management (转载)

Link: http://sizzlingstock.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=691&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0
Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

By NYTT

因为我是做emini的,所以跟做股票的情况略有不同.做股票的有diversify的问题. 我现在来谈谈其他方面的问题.就当消磨时间.

如果你去赌场,你怎么运用money management?

这个问题的答案是:money management 没有意义.因为你有一个unfavorable odds,不管你怎么分配你的资金,你能改变的是你输钱的时间是长还是短.所以money management的第一个要点是:get a favorable odds.

只有这一点确定了,才有赢的可能性.才能谈运用其他money management.你要清楚的认识自己的trading skill 到什么程度,能不能拿到favorable odds.那么如果你拿不到怎么办?从money management的观点,你就不应该投入资金.你应该只做模拟,直到你的trading 达到那个水平.如果你觉得不投入资金,水平没法提高,那么你要明确你投入的资金是学费,不是赌资.这些钱是让你学习怎样提高水平去拿到那个 favorable odds,不是让你在unfavorable odds情况下赌一把.所以要安排好你的资金,使之能支持到你毕业.

第二点,如果你的trading skill达到favorable odds的程度,运用money management就比较简单了.这和打扑克有点类似.一个好的扑克牌手的money management就是两件事: 1)安排好自己总赌资和每一次赌注之间的关系,使自己的总赌资能survive the worst scenario;2)根据每一把的不同odds,改变自己下注的分量. 一个好trader必然会对各种情况下的odds有客观的估计,并根据每个trade情况决定使用的资金量,odds 大的使用的多,odds不够大的,使用的少或干脆不做.同时保证在worst scenario下不被wipe out. money management的一个非常重要的方面,是不被自己的情绪左右,改变自己已确定的discipline.一个经常出现,并最危险的case,是在输了 以后,为了减轻自己psychology pain,加大赌注,想扳回损失.这时候因为头脑发热,根本等不及一个favorable odds,上的资金量也是unreasonably high.最后完全变成一场赌博,而且往往是在unfavorable odds情况下. 所以如何保持自己的自我控制力,冷静,客观地使用资金,是money management的一个非常重要的方面. 当你进入一个position,价钱向另一方向走,这时候有两个改变:1)有比你原来更好的价钱;2)趋势变的unfavorable,或者说你的 odds向unfavorable方向变.这时候新手往往会AD,这种作法跟输了加大赌注想扳回来,本质上是一样的,就是在unfavorable的情况 下加注.价钱和趋势相比,永远是趋势更重要,要让趋势决定你的操作,不要让价钱决定你的操作.你AD的后果,不但是在unfavorable的情况加注, 而且在心理上让你更不愿意stop loss.

第三点是用好stop loss. trading和扑克的主要不同,在于对于扑克,你下了注就不能拿回来,除非你赢了. 而trading你看到情况不对,你可以cut.这一点决定了trading的技术成分比扑克大的多.stop loss作用不光是保护你的资金,也能够提高你的profit.stop loss的点设在哪里,很值得花大力气去研究.并不是简单地设一个比率.设的不好,本来该赢的trade也给stop掉了.要尽可能提高正确率.就是说你 的stop hit 以后,他要真的跌下去,他不跌的,就hit不到你的stop.你的stop loss的点设对了,你就会有安全感,就敢上大量,从而提高你的return.

comments by 史前游客
DAVE你问这样的问题, 足以证明你没有看过KELLY CRITERION. 其实这个公式很简洁, P=E. 你每次押的PERCENTAGE等于你的EDGE. (怎么计算EDGE, 自己全看吧) 押100%是什么概念? 只有在EDGE=100的时候才可以. 比如完全RISK-FREE的ARBITRAGE.

多数人的问题是没有EDGE. 少数人的问题是有了EDGE, 却OVER-LEVERAGE. 事实上如果用P=2E, 你的EV是0. 很多人犯的毛病是把自己的EDGE错误地算大. 倒不是有意OVER-LEVERAGE.

如果PLAY CONSERVATIVE, 每次P=0.5E, 也可以取得很好的成绩. 大约是OPTIMAL的60-70%. 但是VOLATIVITY就小了狠多.

Five ways to stop you breaking trading rules

Link:
http://globalgrowthinvestor.com/117/five-ways-to-stop-you-from-breaking-trading-rules/

Five ways to stop you breaking trading rules

One comment

Ugly at uglychart.com is struggling with sticking to his trading rules and has set up a support group. Here are five ways I stick to my system and keep myself on track.

These methods are based on the fact that successful trading is probably unnatural for us emotional and greedy human beings. So we have to put in structures and methods to counter our natural instincts.

1. Checklists

Filling out a simple checklist manually before you place a trade is effective because it says: STOP, is this rational or irrational?

A checklist might be as simple as:
a) Trade in direction of major trend? Yes/No
b) Trade in direction of general market trend? Yes/No
c) Risking 2% of capital? Yes/No
d) Risk/Reward ratio is 1:3? Yes/No

The more specific the checklist the better, and obviously it should capture the essence of your edge and be as simple as possible.

I put every trade I make through a checklist of fundamental, technical and market criteria. It’s not fool-proof but it does make me stop and think, and look at opportunities more rationally.

2. Know your edge

Sticking to your rules can be tough if deep down you don’t trust in your system. Or even worse, you think there’s something better out there! I suspect this happens a lot with traders who use other people’s methods and don’t modify them to suit themselves.

My system dictates that trades are placed with the goal of holding until the trend ends. That could be anything from a few days to a few months, or even more than a year. This is the best system for my personality, lifestyle and the objective of building up my capital.

But for a long time I thought that I should be ‘swing trading’: taking a lot of short-term trades to nail all these opportunities saw. Unfortunately, I would only swing trade when my account had big gains - feeling confident, I would try and squeeze out some more profits with a few short-term trades. Invariably this would mark the end of the market’s upswing. So my normal healthy drawdown was made worse by losses on swing trades.

To curb this habit of trying for some quick and easy profits, I now keep meticulous records of my trades, including Excel spreadsheets and a paste book of charts of every trade I make. By reviewing these records I have ingrained in myself that I only make money by sticking to my system.

3. Keep money in perspective

I’ve found I break rules when I am subconsciously thinking that I badly need money for something. For example, if you have a wedding coming up (as I do) that requires a big outlay of cash, subconsciously you’re thinking ‘I need to nail some big trades to pay for it.’ In that scenario you’re more likely to be trying to push trades that you normally wouldn’t have considered.

I assume this is exacerbated if you need to make a living from trading. Every trade is linked to paying your bills which is an enormous pressure to bear.

The key is to closely monitor your financial position and be aware of pressures that you may be under. Keeping a journal, or speaking frankly to your partner or a friend can help you deal with this.

4. Tell someone

One of the ways I tried to overcome my ‘swing trading’ issue was by making a rule that I had confess to my girlfriend (now fiancée) every time I had an urge to make a trade that didn’t fit my system.

On one occasion I can recall having an internal battle about whether to tell her or not. I could literally see the profits in my pocket from a potential swing trade. ‘I’ll be in and out and no one will ever know’ I thought. In the end I confessed and let the trade pass. As it turned out it wasn’t an opportunity and it would have left a serious dent in my account.
5. Don’t be too hard on yourself

We’re all human and we all make mistakes. If you read good trading blogs and research successful investors, their experiences are a litany of missed opportunities and mistakes. The common factor is persistence, and once they become successful they do everything they can not to blow up. But perfection is an unattainable goal.

08/28 some thoughts

1. oil down 2.6%, CRB down 1.95%, decreased ppl's concern about future inflation
2. no economy news today, usually this kind day is a up day!
3. SP is only 2.8% from year high, expect some resistence from here
4. stratege: short extrem

Before entering a pos, fill in the check list
A checklist might be as simple as:
a) Trade in direction of major trend? Yes/No
b) Trade in direction of general market trend? Yes/No
c) Risking 2% of capital? Yes/No
d) Risk/Reward ratio is 1:3? Yes/No

08/28 some thoughts

1. oil down 2.6%, CRB down 1.95%, decreased ppl's concern about future inflation
2. no economy news today, usually this kind day is a up day!
3. SP is only 2.8% from year high, expect some resistence from here
4. stratege: short extrem

读后感 - 《Trading For A Living》(转载）

Link:
http://www.trader168.com/bbs/viewtopic.php?f=18&t=223&hilit=

一年多以前看过后的笔记，又翻出来了。现在也许已经不那么看，或不关心了。事实上，我对众多的指标比较抗拒，到现在也不懂几个，当时看明白的很多已经忘了。但懒得再改，就这么摆这吧。

有助成长的守则
1）决定进入市场是个长期打算 - 就是说，你想从现在起交易20年；
2）尽可能的学习。读/听专家，但对任何事保留一定的疑问。问问题，不要仅仅听从专家的字面；
3）不要因贪而匆忙交易 - 给时间学习。市场在下个月或明年会有更多机会；
4）发展一套方法来分析市场 - 就是说，“如果A发生，则B可能发生”。市场有很多维，用多个分析方法来确认交易。在历史数据中测试，然后用真钱在市场中测试。市场总在变，你需要不同的工具在牛市，熊市，以及中间转换的时间而且需要一套方法来说明市场的不同；
5）发展一套资金管理计划。第一个目标一定是长期生存；第二个目标，资金的稳定增长；第三个目标，赚大钱。许多交易者把第三个作为第一个而没有意识到第一二个的存在；
6）认识到交易者是任何交易系统中最弱的一环；
7）胜者思考，感觉，行动与失败者不同。你必须审视自己，去掉幻觉（illusions），改变旧有的习惯，思考，和行动。改变是困难的，但如果你想成为职业交易者，你不得不在改变性格上费劲。

一根价格条的意义（以日图说明，其它也适用）
开盘价被业余交易者决定，他们的交易单积累一夜在早晨进入市场。收盘价多被职业交易者决定，他们交易整天。如果收盘价高于开盘价，职业交易者可能比业余交易者看牛，反之亦然。
最高价表明牛在时间段内的最大能力，最低价表明熊在时间段内的最大能力。
最高和最低价之间的差距展现了牛熊之间的冲突。平均长度表明平静的市场，一半平均长度表明没有兴趣的市场，两倍长度表明牛熊争夺的热点市场。

真假突破
在日线图上买进向上突破最好的时机是当分析周线图建议一个新的上升趋势正在形成。真突破被大的量确认，假突破倾向于小量。真突破被技术指标处于新极端高或低确认，假突破通常被价格和指标的背离指出。

趋势和盘整（range）
在趋势和盘整中交易用不同的战术。当买在上升趋势或卖在下降趋势时，你必须给出怀疑的空间而不被轻易的震出。在趋势继续的前提下系好安全带坐稳会有回报。当在盘整时交易，你必须敏捷有一点反转迹象就要结束仓位。
另一个趋势和盘整交易战术的不同点在于对强势和弱势的处理。趋势时必须跟随强势，买在上升趋势卖在下降趋势。而当价格在盘整区间时必须做相反，买在弱势卖在强势。

The Hound of the Baskervilles
当一个可靠的信号没有演变为你期待的行动，价格朝相反方向运动时，The Hound of the Baskervilles的信号形成。
这个信号由来柯南道尔的福尔摩斯探案中的一集。他发现一个重要的线索，谋杀发生时家里的狗没有叫。这表明狗认识罪犯，谋杀是个inside job。缺乏期待的行动这个事实给出了信号。
当市场拒绝响应一个完美的信号，这给你一个The Hound of the Baskervilles信号。这表明有表面之下根本的变化发生了。这是跟进新的有力趋势的时候。

三组主要的指标
* Trend-following indicators: include MA, MACD (moving average convergence-divergence), MACD-Histogram, the Directional System, On-Balance Volume, Accumulation/Distribution, and others. Trend-following indicators are conincident or lagging indicators - they turn after trends reverse.
* Oscillators: help identify turning points. They include Stochastic, Rate of Change, Smoothed Rate of Change, Momentum, the Relative Strength Index, Elder-ray, the Force Index, Williams %R, the Commodity Channel Index, and others. Oscillators are leading or coincident indicators and often turn ahead of prices.
* Miscellaneous indicators: provide insights into the intensity of bullish or bearish market opinion. They include the New High-New Low Index, the Put-Call Ratio, Bullish Consensus, Commitments of Traders, the Advance/Decline Index, the Traders' Index, and so on. They can be leading or coincident indicators.

Trend-following indicators work best when markets are moving but give bad and dangerous signals when the markets are flat. Oscillators catch turning points in flat markets but give premature and dangerous signals when the markets begin to trend. Miscellaneous indicators provide special insights into mass psychology. The secret of successful trading is to combine several indicators from different groups so that their negative features cancel each other out while their positive features remain undisturbed. This is the aim of the Triple Screen trading system.

MA
SMA不仅受新加入的价格影响，也受被去掉的价格影响，不很平稳。EMA较好些。
选择MA的长度，你想抓的趋势越长，需要的MA长度越长。多数交易者选择10 - 20天。最好不要低于8天因为这与MA的目的违背。
MA的发起人之一Donchian喜欢4/9/18MA交叉的信号，要注意这只适用于强趋势市场。
交易者必须明白EMA象其它工具一样，有好的和坏的一面。MA帮助你识别和跟随趋势，但在盘整阶段会导致两面受损。当EMA走平时，停止使用跟随趋势的工具但继续跟踪这个指标，等待下一次趋势。
MA可作为支撑和阻力。向上的MA作为支撑，向下的MA作为阻力。有些交易者用5天交易量MA来判断市场对趋势的兴趣。

MACD
Fast MACD line由短期MA减长期MA形成，slow Signal line是fast MACD line的MA，MACD-Histogram是fast MACD line减slow Signal line。
MACD 表达的是市场气氛短期跟长期之间的对比。那么，如同价格穿越MA表明价格上升/下降趋势的改变，fast MACD穿越slow Signal表明了牛熊气氛趋势的改变。虽然MACD-Histogram为正才是牛占上风为负才是熊占上风，但其倾斜方向的改变处已是牛/熊力竭的转折 点。对MACD-Histogram来说，倾斜方向比其是正或负更重要。当价格朝一个方向而MACD-Histogram朝另一个方向时，推动价格的力量 在耗尽趋势在减弱。
MACD-Histogram在日线图中上下频繁，在周线图中更有意义。MACD-Histogram象车前灯，给交易者一瞥前方的路。
TA最强的信号：MACD-Histogram和价格之间的背离在一年中只发生几次，但是最强的TA信息之一。这些背离指出主要的转折点并给出“超强”的买卖信号。它们并不在每个重要的顶/底，但当出现时，反转的机会很大。

The Directional System (DMI)
DMI 以每日超出前一日交易范围的累计来判断牛/熊。+DI是所有高出前一日交易范围与两日总交易范围比值的总和，-DI是所有低于前一日交易范围与两日总交易 范围比值的总和，DX为+DI与-DI的差和两者的和的比值，ADX为DX的MA。ADX上升时表明市场牛或熊力量增大（取决于+DI/-DI谁在上 面）。下降时表明趋势（牛或熊）减弱，此时最好不要用跟势的方法。ADX在+DI和-DI两者下面时表明市场平静，在两者之上时表明市场过热。DMI最好 的信号是当ADX在两者之下（时间越长越好），然后上升一定幅度（比如4点）指出了新趋势（牛或熊）的产生。

Oscillators
Oscillators帮助寻找转折点。Oscillators在范围交易时比较好用，在趋势交易时不成熟且危险。趋势交易中一个比较好的选择是在上升趋势中买进超卖，下降趋势中卖出超买。
背离的类型：
Oscillators，象其它指标，最好的信号是当它们与价格背离时。有三种背离，类型A是最好的信号，类型B的强壮弱些，类型C最不重要。
类型A的熊性背离发生在价格创新高而Oscillators只达到更低的高，类型A的牛性背离发生在价格创新低而Oscillators只达到更高的低。它们通常导致激烈的反向运动。
类型B的熊性背离发生在价格做双顶而Oscillators只达到更低的高，类型B的牛性背离发生在价格做双底而Oscillators只达到更高的低。
类型C的熊性背离发生在价格创新高而Oscillators做双顶，类型C的牛性背离发生在价格创新低而Oscillators做双底。

Williams %R
WM %R表达的是当前收盘价在一段时间内所处的位置，(Hr - C) / (Hr - Lr)。r: 多少天，H：最高价，L：最低价，C：收盘价。如果牛不能收在高位附近，它们比看起来脆弱；如果熊不能收在低位附近，它们比看起来脆弱。
WM %R给出三种信号，按重要性排序：牛或熊背离，失败的摆动（Failure Swings），超买超卖。
背 离：价格与WM %R的背离很少发生，它们指出最好的交易机会。当WM %R升到上参考线之上，下降，然后在下次回升时不能达到上参考线之上则产生熊性背离，这现象表明牛在失去力量。反之WM %R降到下参考线之下，回升，再下降时不能达到下参考线之下为牛性背离，表明熊在失去力量。
失败的摆动：群众倾向于从一个极端摆到另一个。WM %R很少在范围中间反转。当WM %R不能达到上参考线之上或下参考线之下而转向时即为失败的摆动（注：从书中的例子来看是很接近参考线而没到）。
超买超卖：超买超卖在范围交易时有用。在上升趋势中超买可持续很长时间，这表达的是趋势的强力而不是卖空机会。下降趋势中超卖可持续很长时间，这表达的是趋势的强力而不是买进机会。
超买超卖指标应在明确主趋势之后使用，用长期trend-following指标达到这可目的。如果周线图表明一个牛市，只使用WM %R的买进信号（超卖），如果周线图表明一个熊市，只使用卖出信号（超买）。

Stochastic
Stochastic 可以说是把与WM %R类似的指标经过多次平滑产生的。Stochastic由两条线组成，快线%K和慢线%D。快线%K类似WM %R，%K = 100 * (C - Ln) / (Hn - Ln)。n：多少天，H：最高价，L：最低价，C：收盘价。%D为%K的平滑（通常3天），%D = 100 * 3-day sum of (C - Ln) / 3-day sum of (Hn - Ln)。
两种Stochastic，快和慢，快Stochastic由%K和%D组成。慢Stochastic是以快Stochastic的%D作为%K，再次平滑得到%D。
Stochastic给出三种信号，按重要性排序：背离，水平位置（超买超卖），方向。
背离：牛背离发生在价格创新低而Stochastic形成更高的低，在Stochastic转为上升的即刻是一个强烈的买进信号。最好的买进信号是前一个底在下参考线以下而第二个在参考线之上。熊背离反之。
超买超卖：要在长期趋势确定的情况下使用。当在周线图中指出上升趋势后，在Stochastic降到下参考线之下后，交叉或转向给出了买进信号。Stochastic底的形状经常表明回升的强弱。底窄而浅表明熊弱而回升倾向于强，底深而宽表明熊强而回升倾向于弱。
不要在Stochastic超买时买进，不要在Stochastic超卖时卖出。这条规则过滤掉很多不好的交易。
方向：两条Stochastic线与价格朝同一方向运动时确认了短期的趋势。
周Stochastic通常比周MACD-Histogram早一周改变方向。当周Stochastic转向时，提醒你trend-following MACD-Histogram有可能下周转向。这是收紧止损或开始兑现利润的信号。
选择Stochastic的计算宽度很重要，如果只用Stochastic，长一些的Stochastic好些，如果与trend-following指标结合使用，短一些的好些。

RSI
RSI用收盘价的变化来衡量市场的力量。RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + RS)，RS = 平均上升收盘变化/平均下降收盘变化。收盘变化：收盘价与前一天收盘价的差。
RSI是个领先或同时的指标 - 从不滞后。
RSI给三种信号，按重要性排序：背离，图形模式（charting patterns），水平位置（超买超卖）
背离：类似Stochastic。
图 形模式：趋势线（Trendlines），支撑/阻力，头肩图可以在RSI上使用，RSI通常比价格早几天完成这些模式，给出趋势变化的暗示。比如， RSI趋势线经常比价格趋势线早1或2天打破。当RSI打破下降趋势线时，在价格的趋势线之上下单买进以抓住向上的突破。当RSI打破上升趋势线时，在价 格的趋势线之下下单卖出以抓住向下的突破。
超买超卖：只在上升趋势中用超卖信号买进。只在下降趋势中用超买信号卖出。

Volume
高交易量确认趋势。如果价格创新高而且量达到新高，则价格很可能重新测试或超越这个高度。如果价格创新低而且量达到新高，则这个“climax bottom”几乎总被小量重新测试，给出了很好的买进信号。
当市场以小量创新高时，寻找卖出信号。这技术不适用于市场底部因为下降可以在小量中持续。华尔街说“要用买来推高价格，但它们可以只靠本身重量下落”
注意观察反趋势时的量。

On-Balance Volume
OBV是量的总和。价格收高表明牛赢了，把量加入OBV。价格收低表明熊赢了，把量从OBV中减去。
OBV顶或底的模式（patterns）比水平位置重要，水平位置取决于从哪天开始算。当OBV与价格同时上升或下降时，趋势被确认。
OBV与价格的背离给出强烈的交易信号。长期的（比如周线）背离比短期的（比如日线）背离重要。

Accumulation/Distribution (A/D)
与OBV类似，但只有量的一部分算做有效。A/D = Volume * (Close - Open) / (High - Low)

Channel Trading Systems
四 种画管道的方法：1）趋势线以及与其平行的一条线；2）MA上下各一条与其平行的线；3）与2相似，只是上下两条线的距离与市场波动程度有关 （Bollinger bands）；4）用最高价和最低价画两条MA。个人认为实际没有什么一定公式，真正的规则是在波动的两边画两道墙使大部分的转折点在墙内并尽量接近墙， 有些类似Oscillators水平参考线画制的5%规则。
业余与职业在使用管道上不同。业余交易者压大的，他们倾向于买在上方突破或卖出下方突破。职业交易者相反，他们在上方突破停止时卖出，在下方突破停止时买进。

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个人想法
其 实所谓TA总的来说是在牛者更牛熊者更熊和涨久必跌跌久必涨之间寻求平衡。这也是为什么一些高手书读薄之后不需要TA指标的原因，因为他们已经抓住了本质 并且找到了度的衡量感觉。对于新手来说，度无法把握，于是量化寻求入出点。先假定某些因素代表牛或熊的力量，量化，做图，定点。量化后找出的度并不一定正 确，只是概率高些罢了，尤其由于使用的人多一定程度上更加强了效果。在这种情况下，风险控制尤其重要。
那么度又该怎样把握呢？归根结底还是基本面。基本面倒未必是绝对的对与错，好与坏，而是群众的接受与不接受。基本面与技术分析交互验证，加上合理的风险控制，也许是成功的关键吧。
基本面要注意不能太执着自己想法，技术分析要注意不能太执着硬性的计算公式或参数。自信但不固执，归根结底这不是数学。

08/20

Most headline inflation measures are still above-average levels, but are lagging indicators of inflation. The Fed knows this. Thus, I expect members to continue to talk modestly hawkish while taking no additional policy action. More dovish talk will likely occur when headline inflation numbers begin showing meaningful deceleration.

The ISE Sentiment Index is plunging again today, down 32% to a depressed level of 55. It has been this low only one other time.

Put/Call 1.16 -1.69%

8/19/2006

1. China Raise rate, hurt exporter and commodity?
2. Not much news this week, housing is the focus, and I believe it will be ugly. Basically I think this week will be ugly for stocks again. 1-2% retreat is possible.

Moday: LOW
Tue: TOL, BGP, MDT, INTU
Wed: BHP, CHS, MIK, SFD
Thu: BONT, FRED, WSM
Fri:SNP, RY

08/17/2006

OE day:

candidate : goog(380 or 390) ebay(27.5) ISE AAPL(67.5) PD(90)
brcm( will xie in sympathy with MRVL)

I expect market pullback some, reasons are:
1. weekend , ppl take profit
2. OE day, MM may need some balance for shorted calls
3. up so much, about 90p for NQ
4. MRVL, DELL all down AH, ==> semi weak

Thursday ER moves:
UP: BRCD, SCSC, BEBE, LAVA
DOWN : DELL, MRVL

ER2 July 25, 2006 chart