9/6/2006 thoughts

Some thoughts on intraday trading: trend is No1, price not important. Need to focus on trend change signal : reach support, resistence, trendline continuation, trendline broken.


ER2 chart today


Actually yestoday there are lots of hints to market top:

1. TNX up without reason.
2. VIX shows bottom out.
3. DOW, SP close to year high, big resistence ahead.
4. ER2 big wave >30p already. This wave is from 693.x to 729, about 35p.
5. DOW & SP show tired sign, no strength at all.

$TNX was up 0.5 yestoday for no reason. It was a myth to me. Today it's clear, bond traders knew the news in advance. $TNX up one day before the news out. The lesson here is to find the clue from 蛛丝马迹.

Also, ^VIX showed bottom out yestoday. And today it proved market topped. See the chart below:


All SP, NAZ, DOW charts show top sign as below.

NAZ 6-month chart:


DOW 6-month chart:

SP500 6-month chart: