Thursday, February 24, 2005

2/24 market watch

Market did a beatiful reversal today. It will be significant. From 6 month Naz chart, the higher low formed. Previous low was 2008. So next few days will be critical. Currently Naz sit on 2050 which is a support/resistent line. To confirm up trend, 2100 need to be broken. To confirm down trend, break down 2000 is a must. So let's keep a close eye.

DOW's chart is much better. The up trend is intact. S&P is also in uptrend and not far away from 52 week high.

So, strong DOWN and S&P favor Naz up. If so, Naz will 补涨. If not, DOW and S&P need 补跌.

Individual stocks:

1. AAPL strong today, especially in the first half day. It's relative weak in the afternoon. My thought is that AAPL already up for several days in down market. People expect less return on it compared with oversold other stocks. Also, there are 2 big block trade intraday. Looks like some institution unloaded AAPL. Since I still have AAPL options, I need to be causious.

2. Most stocks just perform in sync with Naz.

3. SINA stay in very narrow range today. I guess something is going on. Also, it becomes very good acquiration target. So I bought small amount of long term (September) 30 calls for speculation.

4. 检讨: missed chance again. low CPI & PPI is a boost to real estate. I should have in home builder stocks. TOL, PHM etc all big up.

5. NVDA made a good return after yestoday's drop. So I think the impact of the artical I mentioned yestoday is dinimishing. I expect it return to up trend and break previous high.

6. GOOG is tricky now. It get downgraded today. So yesterday up before close looks more like a pump. But still not know what happening. I guess: some MM knows the downgrade just before the end of yesterday, they pump it hard to neutralize the impact of today's downgrade. The purpose is still unclear, whether they want to get out or not. From the cost of the pumping (volumn during 10 minutes pumping last afternoon), they are not ready to get out. I expect they pump more. Today's chart is from the lowest point to highest point. 180 is previous support which wasn't broken today. I expect more upside ahead.

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